GENERAL ELECTIONS 2019: 18 REASONS WHY MR. MODI WILL BE RE-ELECTED AS PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA

As an aspiring psephologist I am always driven by the fascination of cracking the arithmetic behind the Indian elections. There are various factors which constitutes for the success of a political party, of which one, is the achievements of the incumbent government and other, the failure of the opposition. If we see the General Elections of 2019 the ratio between the achievements of the incumbent government doesn’t differs much from that of the failure of the opposition.

Here is how the Modi Government is all set to sweep the General Elections of 2019-

1. Popularity of Narendra Modi

Coming in the big picture on the basis of the Gujrat model, Narendra Modi is still the neta number one of Indian politics. It’s almost impossible for the opposition to break his popularity. The ‘Namo’, ‘Bhakt’ and ‘Ghar ghar Modi’ campaign has succeeded in making a place in people’s heart. His oratory skills is the biggest asset that a leader or a political party can ever have.

2. Surgical strikes and the Pulwama Attack

The government is flying high on the achievements of surgical strikes done in September 2016. Modi also succeeded in taking over the credit of the retaliation work done by the Indian Air Force post the Pulwama attack.

3. The Youth Brigade

The median age of people living in India is 26. In the upcoming General Elections there are going to be 10 million voters who are going to cast their votes for the first time. Various national surveys reports that PM Narendra Modi has a huge fan following among the youth. His energetic speeches and sharp jibes on the opposition has successfully influenced the youth of the nation.

4. Money

One thing at which the Election Commission of India has failed over the years is to check the excessive flow of money during the time of elections. An enormous amount of money is openly spent beyond the set limit during the electoral campaigns. If elections are about money then BJP is the richest party of India. The enormous crowd funding and the money received in form of donations from the capitalists is well used to influence the choices of the voters before the polling day.

5. The Hindutva agenda

If you find any BJP leader sloganeering ‘Mandir Wahin Banaenge’ then its confirmed that elections has arrived. Over the years, one thing at which the saffron party has succeeded the most is building its faith among the Hindu voters.

The party is known for filling its vote bank on the name of Mandir, Masjid and cow.

6. The ‘Chance’ factor

During these five years many new schemes were started by the government. Pradhanmantri Mudra Yojna, Ujjawala Yojna and Make in India are some of them. The PM is demanding five more years as he thinks that the time he got was not sufficient enough and he will need some more time to bring his actual ideas and plans to reality. Majority of people are agreeing to provide him with this chance.

7.      Amit Shah, BJPs ‘Chanakya’

At the current period if there is someone with the best knowledge of making and breaking alliance at the pan India level then it’s Amit Shah. Since 1975, alliances has always played a key role in the Indian elections. When it comes to BJP, they have perfectly mastered this art.

8.      Aya Ram- Gaya Ram

Rewinding  the old 80s Amul’s ad, party hoppers has always played a key role in the electoral process. BJP this season has successfully managed to attract many of the opposition leaders who have a tendency to win few more seats for the  party.

9.      Social Media

When it comes to promoting the party on the 4G smartphones, BJPs own IT Cell have proven themselves to be the kings in last few years. Modi’s own biopic is also ready to hit the theaters therefore it is going to be interesting to see how much impact does social media leaves on Indian voters in this election season.

10.  The Nationalist Agenda

One thing at which team Modi has succeeded the most is in attacking the emotional sentiments of the people. When it comes to wearing the masks of patriots, the saffron party leads the game. This not only will increase their vote share but calling the critics anti-national will bring down opposition’s vote share as well .

11. Failure of Mahagathbandhan

The idea of Mahagathbandhan which could be easily sensed few weeks ago in the mega rally of West Bengal led by Mamta Banerjee, is now fading in the background. The lack of unity and trust amongst the opposition parties is benefiting the BJP in the best possible way. Whether it’s UP, Delhi or West Bengal the opposition has failed badly to bring the numbers on the paper.

12. Failure in exposing the faults of the Modi Government

The opposition parties has ridiculously failed in highlighting the failures of the NDA tenure. Unemployment, economic crisis, agricultural distress are some of the key issues which lost its relevance on the electoral front.

13. Oppositions fails to reach people

During all these years of elections in India this issue remains the same. Political leaders throughout their tenure remain away from their respective constituencies and always show their faces at the time of elections. When the same is done by the leaders of opposition it generates much anger among the citizens, especially those living in the villages.

14. ‘Bina Dulhe ki Baaraat’

To march an opposition alliance against a rival like BJP you need a strong leader who can unite the members of various other parties and guide them through the process. Mahagathbandhan is a failed alliance with no key leader to lead the opposition.

15. Split in opposition’s Vote

Split in the opposition’s votes is the biggest advantage to an interim government. The lack of  a staunch opposition, FPTP (First pass the post) and other factors will together drop the opposition’s vote share and will eventually benefit the BJP. The three tier tussle in UP is the perfect example of how crucial the contest is.

Lost Legacy

16. State of Congress Party

Congress party is standing on its all-time low position. With no strong leader to guide the party, Congress is now divided into various factions. Once the strongest party of India is now struggling for its mere survival. If serious measures are not taken the day is not far when the Congress party will be found only in the history books.

17.  Lack of faith in the opposition alliance

Majority of people still thinks that a government led by a single party is far away better than a government led by a group of parties. If we look around the current political atmosphere, BJP is the only party standing with a strong electorate. In other words people has rejected the idea of having ‘Khichdi’ in 2019.

18. Buffering state of the opposition

While the NDA has successfully completed its alliance building task and is about to finish with the seats and candidates declaration, the opposition is still busy thinking whether to go in an alliance with a particular party or not. Forming alliance is ‘majboori’ Of the opposition, not ‘majbooti’ against the establishment.

There are many points which can be taken away from this piece of which the most important is the turning of Indian elections into a presidential form of system. Today, the polls are solemnly based on 2-3 faces on the national level which is a complete threat to a form of democracy which India practices. With the advancements in technology and campaigning structure we have eventually lost the basic soul of politics. Between all these hypes the basic issues are loosing their relevance. In-order to fetch handful of votes the leaders are now entirely dependent upon lies and their abusive speeches. This all takes India into a world of politics where there is no place for ethics and values.

Voting will be done in 7 phases and results are going to be declared on 23^rd of May 2019. If we see from today there are 50+ days remaining till the final phase of voting which is a very long period of time in Indian politics. During all this, anything can happen therefore it is going to be quite unfair of cracking the seat numbers psephologically. The only thing I can assure you now is that you are going to witness ample of saffron flags on the Indian streets on 23^rd  May.