Olive green returns to Burma

Aung San Suu Kyi

Myanmar and its turbulent past

Myanmar earlier called Burma, got its independence from Britishers in 1948. In 1962, a decade and a half later, military leader Ne Win abolished the existing civilian government of Prime Minister U Nu and staged a coup to rule the country through Junta (Military Rule) for several years. Years passed and in 1988, Dan Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of the independence hero of the Myanmar returned to her home country and formed the NLD (National League for Democracy) as pro-democracy protests began erupting against the Junta rule. Security forces open fired on the demonstrators where hundreds were killed in what is popularly known as the August Protests (Revolution 8888). A year later watching the growing popularity of its sharpest critic, the military locked Suu Kyi under house arrest.

As the year 1990 came, the ruling Junta decided to hold the general elections. The elections, as expected were swept away by the Suu Kyi’s NLD which succeeded in securing more than 81% of the total votes casted. Junta nullified the results and continued with its arbitrary rule. In the same decade Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel peace prize for her peaceful protest against the dictatorial regime. In 2008 a new constitution was brought into practise in Myanmar. To avoid loosing its influence and power among the citizens of country, the military brought a new form of democracy where it reserved 25% of the total seats in parliament for itself including the key cabinet posts of Defence, Home and Border affairs.

The year 2010 turned out to be a historic year for Myanmar as general elections were held almost after two decades. USDP (Union Solidarity and Development Party), a proxy of the Tatmadaw (The Myanmar Military) won most of the seats. The NLD boycotted the elections citing they were rigged and unfair. Aung San Suu Kyi was also released from the house arrest. Here release was celebrated and welcomed in the entire global community. Two years later in 2012, By-elections were held where Suu Kyi and her party participated and won a massive 43 seats out of the 45 seats on which the polling was held. Suu Kyi won from the Kawhmu and held the public office for the first time.

Revolution 8888 (1988)

Suu Kyi’s 2015 Election Victory and the Rohingya Crisis

As the term of the previous government came to an end, fresh elections were held which were seen as first openly held since 1990. Under the leadership of Suu Kyi, NLD registered a landslide victory. To obstruct Suu Kyi from leading the government, the military in its 2008 constitution framed a law in which no person could become the head of the state who marries a foreign national. Since Suu Kyi married a British citizen she became ineligible to head the country. To tackle this issue she was made the state counsellor of Myanmar which ultimately made her the de facto head of Myanmar’s elected government.

In 2016. Rohingya militants attacked three border posts in Rakhine state killing nine police officers. To counter this, the military responded with a massive crackdown on the Rohingya population. Fearing this, over a million Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh and nearby countries. The event turned out to be a major let down for the Myanmar in the International community. Cases were filed against the military and administration accusing them of genocide and denying people of basic human rights. Suu Kyi denied these allegations and defended her generals strongly at the International Court of Justice, hardly she knew the same generals would lock her up again one day. Suu Kyi did received massive domestic support especially from the Bamars but her image and reputation was destroyed at the global level.

State Counsellor Suu Kyi and General Min Hlaing

2020 General Elections and the return of Junta

Even after the incumbency of five years there were no signs of loss in the popularity of Suu Kyi among the people of her country. That was officially proved when in the recently held general elections NLD swept the polls by winning 396 seats out of the 476 seats and succeeded in securing more than 80% of the total votes casted. The main opposition military backed USDP could manage to win only 33 seats. This was the point where the bells started to ring in the army camp. The Trump effect soon started to be seen in this South-East Asian nation as the key opposition parties and the military started to accuse the ruling government and the Election Commission of unfair elections and vote fraud. The Myanmar Election Commission rejected the allegations and said there were no errors big enough to impact the credibility of the vote.

Under these circumstances, the military citing the 2008 constitution took control over the nation and imposed emergency for full one year. The main reason cited was the failure of the government and the EC to address the vote fraud issue. Myint Suu, the army appointed vice-president took the control in his hands and soon transferred all the powers to Military Commander, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Aung San Suu Kyi along with her trusted aides was detained and put under house arrest.

Why the Military did what it did

Apart from the growing influence of Suu Kyi there were several factors which made the military overthrow the civilian government. Firstly, the interim army chief Min Aung Hlaing was set to retire in July this year. There were clear indications that he simply did not wanted the power to go out of his hands. He knew the moment he was out of this job, various human rights and corruption cases filed against him were on the table ready to be heard. US Government in 2019 had already put Hlaing on black list on the grounds of engaging in serious human rights abuse. He was in no mood to let go away the privileges he was currently having. Secondly, Suu Kyi was highly concerned about the interference of the army in the regular working of the government. She in her earlier statements cleared the air by saying if she is brought to power she will progressively reduce the army’s guaranteed seats in the parliament. She had a ten year agenda for getting the Myanmar army completely out of the political and power system. These plans of her were clearly not well received by the Tatmadaw. Thirdly, since last three years the military was accused of committing serious war crimes and genocide especially in the Rakhine state. In the coup the military saw an opportunity through which it could close or make its position strong in all the cases it is accused or convicted in.

After a decade of civilian rule the military thought it was necessary to come back to power so that they are able to continue to exercise their influence on the government and people of Myanmar.

Doctors protesting with three fingers raised in a defiant salute from the Hunger Games Films. The gesture has become the symbol of the pro-democracy demonstrations across Asia.

 

What lies ahead for Burma

After this coup the current system has become tremendously beneficial for the army. It has complete command and autonomy since all the international investments are in its commercial interests and it now has political cover from civilians for war crimes. Since the Rohingya crisis all the major western powers had already turned their back to Aung San Suu Kyi. It is evident that she may not be able to fetch the same amount of support from her allies as she used to get earlier. Keeping the interests of people of Myanmar ahead, countries like US, UK, Australia and India have already started to exert pressure for the restoration of democracy. The new Biden administration has warned the Tatmadaw of serious sanctions, but eventually the sanctions will hurt the people of Myanmar more than the army generals. The United Nations has also condemned the coup.

The community most likely to be affected from the current uncertainties is the Rohingya refugees. Currently thousands of them are living in Bangladesh as refugees and are waiting to be repatriated. Despite reservations from the Myanmar’s army, talks were going on between both the countries to solve the issue but the coup is now likely to bring all the progress to zero. The coup is also not a good sign when it comes to the national economy as perceived by the experts. The military rule is likely to mess the economy amid the pandemic.

The military said it will oversee free and fair multi party elections after the end of state of emergency but the people have already started to register protest against the coup. Suu Kyi has also asked the people to stand for their democratic rights and begin a nationwide civil disobedience movement. As Lincoln rightly said “democracy is government of the people, for the people and by the people” and it is quite clear that people of Myanmar will leave no stone unturned to take their power back, as they have done in the past.

Picture Credits - Reuters and Getty Images